A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
